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Whose Recession?

 

On this past weekend's Sunday political gabfests a theme arose that was repeated repeatedly: Is the recession over? Most of the answers that I heard were ambivalent on the subject, with most leaning towards a qualified "Yes", which was then used as a jumping off point to praise the wonderful workings of the Obama stimulus plan. Now, we all know that the $787 billion boondoggle hasn't quite lived up to the promise of the program, what with unemployment steadily rising, banks going under, and the government taking over private enterprises in order to "save" them. However, the worshippers of the One-Who-Makes-Oceans-Recede do not see it that way, because BHO works in mysterious ways.

But one of the other things that has caught my attention for a couple of years now, and caused them to perk up again was the trotting out of the canard that this particular recession started way back in 2007, so that all that we are going through right now can be conveniently laid at the feet of the not so dearly departed Bush Administration. By pushing the idea that the recession started in 2007, the unholy alliance of the media and the Democratic Party is able to paint a picture that establishes a narrative where the Bush Administration drove the economy off the proverbial cliff, but the ever heroic BHO slapped on his cape, tights, and boots and swooped in to save the day....just before the economic engine crashed into the ground below. Now our Economic Superman, and his Economic Justice League partners are hard at work using the unlimited powers of the government to set things right! Just like an old Saturday morning cartoon!

However, there is just one tiny bit of a problem with that scenario: it is built on one of the basest lies ever told! It is built on a lie that anyone with a computer, an internet connection, an inclination, and a little bit of time can easily debunk. Moreover, it is only a viable lie if the left is allowed to redefine common terms, as it is wont to do whenever a word has an inconvenient meaning for their particular position.

The only way that the left (i.e. Democrats and media) can even start to advance their 2007 recession story is to redefine what constitutes a recession. As commonly understood, a recession is when the economy goes through two down quarters as measured by GDP, or two quarters of negative growth, also known to us plebeians as "a loss".  However, in order to make the year 2007 the beginning of the recession a new definition was needed, so the left created a new definition of recession that substituted negative growth (a loss) for less growth. It may not seem like a big deal, but in reality, it is a huge change. By defining less growth as an indicator of recession, an economy that continues to grow can be declared to be in a recession in the midst of a growth cycle.

Now, I do not claim to be an economist but I can tell you that by no stretch of the imagination did the recession start in 2007. According to statistics published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the numbers for 2007 told a different story on the economic climate than the Blame Bush crowd would have you believe, to wit:

  • GDP for 1st quarter: +1.2%
  • GDP for 2nd quarter: +3.2%
  • GDP for 3rd quarter: +3.6%
  • GDP for 4th quarter: +2.1%

Now, I do not know about you, but that seems like four straight quarters of positive growth! Only by redefining the meaning of recession can a case be made that the current recession started in 2007 on the Bush Administration's watch. In fact, the well-regarded Hoover Institution think tank based at Stanford University reports that for the year 2007:

  • GDP rose by 2.2%
  • Personal consumption spending rose by 2.9%
  • Personal income rose by 3.1%
  • Industrial production rose by 1.5%
  • The national deficit was down by 34%, to $163 billion
  • Unemployment stood at 5%...virtually zero unemployment
  • The trade deficit was down 7% to $650 billion
  • Consumer prices rose by 4.1%
  • Consumer credit debt rose 4.2%
  • Producer Price Index rose 3.9%

Even with the last three indicators being generally negative, the economy of the US was in very good shape all through the year of 2007. Moreover, things were in generally good shape in the first two quarters of 2008, with growth rates of 1% and 2.5% respectively; it was not until the third quarter of 2008 that the economy began a downturn (-0.5%) before totally catering in the fourth quarter (-6.3%) with the twin collapse of the housing and banking sectors. Yet for nearly three years we have been fed a steady diet of misinformation about the starting date of the current recession, all the better to turn a tough recession into a catastrophe to be simultaneously blamed on the previous administration and used to advance a radical political/economic agenda.

It is well past time that the Obama administration stops lying to the American people about the measures being taken in the name of rescuing a flailing economy; a stimulus that stimulates nothing, continued government takeovers of private enterprises, and continued rising unemployment rates in the face of government promises to reduce unemployment.  It is also time to stop the lies about the economic conditions during the Bush years and take ownership of the mess that BHO campaigned to take control of, and his policies have made worse. Bush is eight months removed from office now, and continuing to blame him for everything that has gone wrong is a mark of immaturity and unprofessionalism. Barrack wanted it, now he has it, and it is up to him to do something constructive about it; the Blame Bush Pity Party is at an end. As they say in this neck of the woods, "That dog just won't hunt!"

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The Unionized States of America

Once upon a time labor unions were all about protecting the interests of their dues paying members; making sure that they had safe working condidtions, fair wages, good benefits, and solid pension plans. They were not overtly political, in that their politics were all about getting what they could from management and to their members. They didn't care what political party you were from as a candidate, so long as you were on their side they were on yours.
 
Times have definitely changed, as the union bosses have morphed their unions from their original purposes of looking out for workers to being politcal heavyweights and king-makers. And the only kings they seek to make are members of a Party that is represented by a donkey...any others need not apply. The vast majority of unions, at least their leadership, are not really independent entities but fundraising arms of the Democratic Party, that demand politcal favors in return for their cash contributions.
 
Now with Barack Obama safely ensconced in the Oval Office, the unions are in a more powerful position than they have ever been before. There have been numerous pro-union presidents who have served, but none so willing to turn power over to the unions as Mr. Obama. There are two very high profile cases that illustrate that the unions have become less king-makers in this administration and have taken on the role of a quasi-king: the cases of the SEIU and the UAW.
 
By now everyone knows how the UAW has benefitted from their close alliance with the Obama administration. For a mere $4.9 million the UAW has basically been rewarded with ownership stakes in both Chrysler and General Motors (or what's left of them); a 40% stake in GM and about 55% of Chrysler. But worse than that, the adminstration willing abrogated existing bankruptcy laws by attempting to strong arm Chrysler's secured creditors to take 33 cents/dollar on their debt, while guaranteeing the UAW 50 cents/dollar; and in the case of GM the secured creditors were only given a 10% stake in the company, while the UAW got the aforementioned 40%.  Now the stock and stake in the company may not be worth very much right now, but if the companies manage to rebound under government supervision, however unlikely, it still is amazing that for a mere $4.9 million the UAW has been given control of two of the Big Three carmakers...after their unreasonable demands and unsustainable retirement benefits helped drive the companies over the cliff. That is serious ROI, my friends.
 
The curious case of the SEIU is more of the same, but on a grander scale. In an administration that made much noise about keeping lobbyists out of the loop, it is a sight to see a union actually shaping White House policy. The state of California passed a measure recently that would have cut wages for home healthcare workers in the state, in a bid to create some budget relief for a state that is looking at a $20-plus billion deficit in the coming fiscal year...even with the savings created by this measure. According to a story in the Los Angeles Times, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger reported that the Obama administration threatened to pull $6.8 billion in stimulus funds alloctaed for the state because the decision to cut the wages of the home healthcare workers allegedly violates the stimulus law. The governor also stated that the adminstration sent a letter on April 30 affirming that the plan to cut the aforementioned wages violated the law, and later the administration set up a teleconference to discuss the situation. And guess who else was invited to be on the conference...that's right, the SEIU!
 
That apparently is what $33 million in campaign contributions buy you these days...total access to the White House decision making apparatus. The very group that represents the healthcare workers in California was invited to be a part of the talks between the US government and the California state government on whether or not federal monies would be withheld from the state! All because the SEIU handed over a large chunk of change to get Obama into office, they now get to help decide the fate of the state of California vis-a-vis the stimulus funds, and may help sink the state further in debt to satisfy their own short term interests.
 
From card check, to the UAW, to the SEIU strongarm job on the Governator, the Obama adminstration has shown exactly where its priorities and allegiances lie. They have not done a thing to really safeguard the jobs of the autoworkers; witness the talk of a revamped GM having to outsource the building of certain cars to Mexico to become profitable again. But they have paid off the people at the upper echelons of union management with their awarding the unions majority stakes in two of the formerly Big Three, and they are paying off the SEIU by undermining a bipartisan effort in Lefti...I mean CALIfornia to find a way out of their budget deficit by standing not with the state, but with the union. The destruction of the concept of federalism in this case notwithstanding, it is a truly scary sight to see a federal administration using its powers of persuasion and force against a state that is simply attempting to handle state business...all to benefit a powerful union contributor.
 
The way things are going, we are soon going to be forced to change our name from the United States of America to the Unionized States of America! And for some strange reason, I don't think this was what Lincoln, whom Obama claims so much to admire, meant when he said his first priority was to preserve the Union!
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Turn Out the Lights

Back when Monday Night Football was new "Dandy" Don Meredith, one of the three man crew along with Frank Gifford and Howard Cosell, would often start to sing "Turn out the lights, the party's over" when the game was pretty much in hand and one team was about to earn a victory. Well, when I began to look at what our government is doing with the "stimulus" legislation, I realized that the song needed to be dusted off to say goodbye to the quaint notion of federalism.
 
I am sure that most of you know exactly what federalism is, but for the unitiated here's a quick thumbnail explanation: federalism is the constitutional concept of the Founders of this Republic of ours that separated the powers of the federal and state governments. In short, there were supposed to be areas where the states reigned supreme, areas that were the province of the national government alone, and ultimately the federal government was to have as little interaction with the various state governments as possible. That's it: simple and brilliant.
 
But this recent "stimulus" legislation has totally blown that concept to shreds, putting the notion of federalism out of its misery. To be sure, the idea of federalism has been steadily weakened in this nation, with the federal government continually creeping into the picture and sticking its dirty fingers into the pies of the states. The federal government has stuck its nose into so many different state matters, from education to road maintainence, that most people figured the concept was already dead. But the fact is, even with the increase of federal creep into the private affairs of the states the concept was at least paid lip service by our elected leaders. But no more! The "stimulus" bill has finally disabused us of the notion that the states are willing or able to make it on their own without federal intervention.
 
This abomination of a bill has the effect, outside of being the jumping off point for the open practice of creating a socialistic economy, of making the various states simply clients of the government in Washington. Far too many of the states have taken budget surpluses and turned them into deficits because of poor fiscal management and profligate spending. I mean really, how else does a state manage to run up a 40 plus BILLION dollar deficit? As they so succintly stated on an episode of The Simpson's "tax and spend, tax and spend!" Now the bill for all of the spending has come due, the federal government has offered them a Faustian bargain, and the states are tripping over each other to get a spot at the trough. Hell, my esteemed governor Beverly Perdue was just saying that she would drive a truck to South Carolina to collect any money that their governor, Mark Sanford did not want! Yes, I know it was a "joke"...but that is not the kind of "joke" a sitting governor should be making. And the sad part is that the governors, the state legislators, and the national representatives for the various states, especially the Democrats, seem to be more than willing to give away state autonomy for a few billion dollars to bail them out of their self made messes. Futher, the few governors out there that would rather not become simple sattelites for the DC government are being attacked and derided for not lining up with the rest of the beggars to get their share of the governmental alms!
 
And that is why we can say R-I-P to our notion of federalism. We have changed from a nation that looked at government as a helper of LAST resort to a nation that demands that government fix our personal problems for us. We have become a nation that thinks the President can, or should care to, get us a better job than we have at McDonald's, or that he can provide us with a home when we can't afford one. And our states have become the latest victims of the welfare mentality that has broken so many homes in this country; they have decided that they won't do the work to provide for themselves because Big Daddy Government is there to fix all that ails us. So I just have one thing to say to the concept of federalism....
 
Turn out the lights, the party's over!
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The Perils of Populism

From time to time we all love to rant and rave at the folly and excesses we see going on around us. Let’s face it, a little rant is oftentimes good for the soul…it acts as an emotional catharsis and allows us to efficiently function (nice alliteration, LOL!) in a world that seems at many junctures to have simply gone mad.

Recently the object of scorn has been the evil bank executives who handed out billions of dollars in bonuses, while their banks were teetering on the edge of collapse. Or it could be the Citi executive who blew through over a million bucks to redecorate his office, or the latest outrage of the company attempting to take delivery of a corporate jet after the bank had to be “bailed out” by the government. And then there is the favorite whipping boy of the press, Exxon-Mobil which again managed to post record profits in the midst of an economic downturn. Ranting at their excesses or complaining about the money they blow through on “frivolous” expenditures is only natural, when many of us are actually hurting financially. We look at that money, calculate how much it could have helped regular folks, and we rant. And I can live with that, because I understand it…heck, I even rant about some of this stuff myself!

The danger in that ranting, though, is when people turn that frustration into a political position or platform. Too much of the populist sentiment we see coming from television commentators like Bill O’Reilly or some politicians who stoke anger at a perceived lack of judgment on the part of corporate execs is easily transformed into demagoguery. People get so emotionally caught up in vilifying the evil executives that all sense of fairness and fact checking get lost in the rush to see who can condemn the “profligate spending” the loudest. For example, the Citi corporate jet was not costing the taxpayers anything, since it was ordered and the payments were being made when the company was in good financial shape. And in the case of the million dollar office make-over, none of that money had anything to do with the TARP funds that the government was handing out like candy on Halloween. While it may have been a bit over the top, the renovations were done before the company went in the crapper and it was done on the company’s dime…so where does President Obama get off carping about it!

Which leads me to the biggest danger in the whole rush to embrace populist sentiment, and that is the fact that populism almost always leads to a more intrusive government. Think about what you’re hearing now: Levin saying that the government should not allow Citi to take delivery of their plane or Obama weighing in on how much money corporate executives should be allowed to earn. At the end of every populist campaign is a call for the government to intercede and “set things right”. Populism leads into an ever more intrusive government presence in business and industry and in our personal lives as well, like night leads to day. I have yet to see a populist yet whose solution to whatever problem he is ranting about encompasses any type of market based, or individual responsibility based solution; it is always, “We have a problem with X, so we need the government to do Y!”

So when you see these people railing against Exxon, or Citi, or Big Tobacco feel free to share their sentiments, just don’t get caught up in their “solutions” because those solutions will likely lead to the erosion of our freedoms. And that is the true peril of populism.
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